CREATE Begins Third Year of Research to Improve National Security

USC’s Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events — known as CREATE — has begun its third year of research under the guidance of director Detlof von Winterfeldt, a professor of industrial and systems engineering in the Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering.

Detlof von Winterfeldt

CREATE is the first university-based research program in the nation aimed at improving national security through modeling and analysis of potential terrorist threats. Its work to bring the human and economic consequences of major terrorist events into the forefront of public policy requires a collaborative effort by experts in many fields, including computer science, civil engineering, industrial and systems engineering, economics, the social sciences, risk analysis and public policy.

The work of the center is supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. CREATE relies on faculty from USC, the University of Wisconsin and New York University to develop advanced models that gauge how and where terrorist events may occur, to estimate the economic consequences of such attacks, and to identify what parts of the country are most vulnerable. Policymakers are using these tools to plan against and prepare for major threats, such as chemical, biological, nuclear, radiological and cybersecurity attacks.

A variety of studies have been initiated or completed this year in five research areas: border security, transportation security, infrastructure protection, weapons of mass destruction and intelligence analysis.

One recently completed study analyzes the longer-range economic consequences of developing countermeasures to protect commercial aircraft from “Man Portable Aerial Defense Systems” (MANPADS) attacks.

"There is a real threat to the United States of terrorists attacking planes," explains von Winterfeldt. "We think there are at least 4,000 to 5,000 of these surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) in the hands of terrorists, and there’s a market for them in the U.S."

Countermeasures Program Initiated

Because of that, Congress initiated a special $100 million program in 2004 to study new technologies that could be used as countermeasures to protect commercial aircraft from potential terrorist attacks. This program has just received another $40 million to continue its effort through 2007.

CREATE addressed the cost-effectiveness of directed infrared devices — infrared jammers — that could be used to interfere with missile homing seekers and deflect SAMs away from an airplane.

“Although these technologies can be very effective in protecting airplanes, they are also very expensive to install,” von Winterfeldt says. “It can cost $1 million to $3 million to install these systems, and $1 billion to $2.5 billion per year to operate a fleet equipped with the system.”

Detlof von Winterfeldt, right, showcases CREATE research to Congresswoman Diane Watson and DHS Undersecretary Jay Cohen on Capitol Hill.

Over 10 years, the cost of building and outfitting an entire fleet of commercial aircraft with these infrared systems could run as high as $35 billion, according to an earlier RAND Corp. study.

All things being equal, the CREATE study suggested that these countermeasures would be worth the investment if three conditions prevailed: 1) the probability of a MANPADS attack is greater than 40 percent over 10 years; 2) the economic losses are very large (greater than $75 billion); and 3) the countermeasures prove relatively inexpensive (less than $15 billion) to implement.

Other Ongoing Research

In the area of biological weapons, CREATE is also working on Phase 2 of a new homeland security study to assess the risks of 30 biological agents that could be used by terrorists in an attack on the U.S. The agents include anthrax, smallpox, rycin, e. coli, the plague and other biological pathogens.

In another study closer to home, the center has completed an analysis of the consequences of a “dirty bomb” attack on Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors, which are inherently attractive targets for terrorists. They are “large and bustling, making up the third busiest ports in the world. Annually, 11.4 million 20-foot equivalent containers traverse through their waterways, totaling in value about $218 billion. In addition, 36 percent of U.S. imports enter into the country through these two ports.”

The analysis suggested that closure of both ports from a radioactive bomb would cost in the neighborhood of $20 billion per month and contaminate the harbors for months thereafter. In addition, the psychological aftermath of possible radioactive exposure could scare off workers for a prolonged period of time and cause a shutdown.

Also of note is an ongoing infrastructure pilot study being conducted for the California Governor’s Office to protect critical infrastructure, such as dams and chemical plants, from terrorist attacks.

In this study, researchers are looking at 60 sites by sector (type of site) to determine which would be the most vulnerable to an attack and have the most serious long-term economic consequences for the state.

Dams and chemical plants are leading the list, von Winterfeldt says, followed by recreational sites, stadiums and some commercial buildings. Homeland security funding for safeguarding specific sites will be based on the results of this study, which are expected to be delivered to the Governor’s Office later this year.