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Conferences, Lectures, & Seminars
Events for October
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Robust Simulation and Catastrophe Diagnostic for Accounting for Uncertainty in Catastrophe Risk Analysis
Wed, Oct 13, 2010 @ 02:00 PM - 03:00 PM
Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Conferences, Lectures, & Seminars
Speaker: Dr. Craig Taylor, Director, Research for Baseline Management Company, Inc. and Research Professor, Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering
Abstract:
The speaker has given two previous seminars in the USC CEE Department:
⢠2000: On Acceptable Risk Procedures for Ports and
Airports
⢠2008: On A Non-Parametric Approach to Evaluating
Catastrophe Risk and Decisions: Financial and
Infrastructure Systems
In these seminars, the speaker outlined catastrophe risk procedures for infrastructure systems and showed how the uncertainties in the models involved could be accounted for in the overall loss distribution. Methods were outlined to manage the uncertainties in the parameters that are explicitly considered within each part of the model (e.g., hazards, response of components, systems response). These are the ânominalâ or âendogenousâ uncertainties. With the introduction of alternative models, based on different assumptions, parameters, or data, one may begin to account for the remaining âexogenousâ uncertainties that lie within the bounds of current knowledge. Of course, no domain of science is or should be ever âsettled,â so exogenous elements will persist, contributing to some residual uncertainty.
In past CEE seminars, the speaker described the weakness of one conventional approach that parses uncertainty into âaleatoryâ and âepistemicâ elements. Robust simulation provides an alternative approach to the management of uncertainty in catastrophe risk analysis, as well as overcome severe weaknesses that may occur in the use of logic trees and weighting systems. The speaker will further reiterate briefly weaknesses that can arise through the numerous smoothing techniques that can arise. These have arguably contributed significantly to the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management and to the recent severe recession resulting in part from the egregiously high ratings of mortgage-backed securities containing sub-prime loans.
The previous seminars assumed that the endogenous uncertainties âvanishâ as numerous simulations are performed. Thus, topics of âinfinite varianceâ or âinfinite meanâ were ignored. To a very large extent, a priori modeling of exposures subject to catastrophes may postulate âunstableâ distributions (ignoring here for instance alpha-stable distributions). The speaker instead has devised a very simple method for evaluating the âstabilityâ or âdangerâ of a distribution with a simple one-parameter Pareto. Comparison of the âtailâ (99th centile in the severity distribution) of the Pareto distribution with the simulated catastrophe loss distribution can provide a diagnostic (similar to a modified QQ diagnostic) helpful in testing how the degree of âdangerâ of a catastrophe loss distribution. Typically there will be limits (e.g., limits on the amount of capital at stake, limits on the magnitude of an earthquake, limits on the total loss for a specific property) that will render a catastrophe loss distribution more stable than might be modeled if extreme value distributions are postulated in advance of such considerations.
Robust simulation then begins with a preferred set of models and a test of the âdangerâ of the loss distribution given an extremely large number of simulations. The âexogenousâ uncertainties in the catastrophe loss distribution are illustrated in ongoing research as in missile risk analysis, global climate change, climate conditioning for hurricanes and other severe weather events, and alterative seismicity. Each model is rendered as coherent as possible; mixing models as through âweightsâ may produce less than coherent results. If weighting is required, as for âofficialâ results, this should be performed at the end of the process. The result of this process yields âbounds of uncertainty.â Unless one imposes a distribution on these outcomes, these uncertainties do not represent confidence intervals.
This procedure is not altogether felicitous, but represents a mature viewpoint. Many models that were once disregarded because they were not good enough for some reason or other now come into play to assist in defining bounds of uncertainty. In the selection of alternative credible models, merits begin to count as well as demerits. Encouraging competition among models is salutary in science and engineering. In this probabilistic realm, selection of one model over another often involves tradeoffsâwith pros and cons of various fitting criteria, parameters, assumptions, and the like.
Biography:
Dr. Craig E. Taylor has had over thirty years of experience in catastrophe risk analysis with an emphasis on infrastructure systems, finance, policy, and earthquakes. Currently Director of Research for Baseline Management Company, Inc. and Research Professor at the University of Southern California, he has taught an advanced Civil Engineering course on risk and decision analysis for infrastructure systems. His 200 or so publications and over sixty papers include as contributor and editor four monographs for the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and major reports on earthquake mitigation for a federal earthquake insurance program, should one be established. Belonging to four professional organizations, and previous chair of the ASCE Council on Disaster Risk Management (CDRM) as well as past chair of several committees, he has received several awards including a lifetime achievement award from the Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering (TCLEE). In October 2008 he served as an ASCE representative to look at impacts of the Wenchuan earthquake and to participate at a Tongji University workshop on reconstruction alternatives. In September 2010 he returned to Tongji University to give a plenary presentation at the International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management (ISRERM 2010). He earned his doctorate at the University of Illinois.
Host: Prof. Jean-Pierre Bardet
Audiences: Everyone Is Invited
Contact: Evangeline Reyes
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A new solution for an old-age problem: biosolids as a renewable energy resource
Wed, Oct 20, 2010 @ 02:00 PM - 03:00 PM
Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Conferences, Lectures, & Seminars
Speaker: Dr. Homayoun Moghaddam, Division Manager and Director, Regulatory Affairs of the City of Los Angeles. Dept. of Public Works
Talk Title: A new solution for an old-age problem: biosolids as a renewable energy resource
Abstract: Terminal Island Renewable Energy (T.I.R.E.) Project
The Terminal Island Renewable Energy project (T.I.R.E.) Project is the nation's first and only full scale application of deep well injection technology to convert wastewater residual solids, biosolids into green power while simultaneously sequestering greenhouse gases. The earth's high temperature biodegrades the organic compounds to generate methane for producing renewable energy.
The City of Los Angeles and it partners, GeoEnvironment Technologies, and the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) has embarked on a new innovative technology to convert a valuable organic resource biosolids into clean energy by deep well injection and geothermal biodegradation. The T.I.R.E uses depleted subsurface oil and gas formations where the earthâs high temperature would biodegrade the organic compounds to generate methane gas that can ultimately be used to produce a safe renewable energy. The TIRE project is a five-year demonstration project and has been in operation for over 2 years. So far, large quantities of gallons of bio-slurry which includes wastewater by-products such as brine, treated effluent, digested sludge, and biosolids have been successfully injected. A monitoring system provides real-time data on the subsurface activities, including seismic, to a Technical Advisory Committee for evaluation.
There are the environmental benefits that come from the local subsurface anaerobic treatment and sterilization of biosolids in a confined environment. The biodegradation of the injected biosolids and brine as a slurry ultimately produces methane that is captured to generate green energy, and carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, that is sequestered. Also other air contaminants (NOX and CO) are reduced and potentially the discharge of concentrated brine to the Los Angeles harbor is eliminated.
The T.I.R.E. project provides an innovative solution to an environmental challenge, while simultaneously providing economic and environmental benefits. The project outcomes are a diversified biosolids management program that saves money while producing positive environmental results. The project improves air quality, protects water quality, and reduces the greenhouse gases. The most important achievement of TIRE project is introducing an innovative way to utilize wastewater treatment byproducts as a renewable resource in an environmentally safe manner.
Biography: Homayoun R. Moghaddam, Ph.D.
â¢30 years of experience in the areas of power, refinery, gas plants, water & wastewater, biomass, biogas, renewable energy technologies, climate change and Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) issue, air quality and biosolids management, and regulatory and legislative affairs.
â¢27 years with the City of Los Angeles. Started his City career with the Department of Building & Safety. Promoted to Los Angeles Dept. of Water & Power, and has been with the Department
Currently: Division Manager and Director of Regulatory Affairs of the City of Los Angeles Department of Public Works.
Location: Kaprielian Hall (KAP) - 209
Audiences: Everyone Is Invited
Contact: Evangeline Reyes
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Symposium in Memory of Professor Teh Fu
Thu, Oct 21, 2010 @ 08:30 AM - 05:00 PM
Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Conferences, Lectures, & Seminars
Speaker: International and Domestic Guests,
Talk Title: International Symposium on Advances in Sustainable Environment in Memory of Professor Teh Fu Yen
Host: Viterbi School of Engineering and Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Location: Ronald Tutor Hall of Engineering (RTH) - 526
Audiences: By Invitation
Contact: Evangeline Reyes
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Wind Integration ----By All Means Available
Wed, Oct 27, 2010 @ 02:00 PM - 03:00 PM
Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Conferences, Lectures, & Seminars
Speaker: Eilyan Bitar, Graduate Student, University of California, Berkeley
Abstract:
There is an increasing interest in renewable energy production both from economic, security and environmental perspectives. The State of California has set a target of thirty-three percent penetration from all renewable sources by 2020. Wind energy will play a key role in realizing such aggressive targets. At today's modest (order one percent) penetration levels, wind energy is integrated into the grid by legislative fiat. At deep penetration levels called for, integration of utility-scale wind production into the electricity grid poses serious engineering and market challenges. These are due to the variability, intermittency, and uncontrollability of wind power. In this talk we investigate ways to use a portfolio of available means to achieve deep penetration of wind generation in the current grid. This portfolio includes co-located storage, fast-acting local production, optimized contracts, novel market instruments, and improved forecasting. We introduce a linear programming formulation that enables us to study sensitivities and conduct parametric studies. We argue that co-located storage has a marginal economic utility of approximately 17 MW-hours-per-day for each MW-hour of storage. Our studies suggest that it will become necessary to waste some produced wind energy (when production is lower than thirty percent of nameplate capacity) to permit reliable servicing of electricity contracts. This is due to the difficulty associated with forecasting produced power at low wind levels. Finally, we suggest the use of risk-limiting contracts to achieve firming of wind-power. In these auditable contracts, the producer receives a short reprieve which enables them to offer power predictably by avoiding ramp times. We conclude by discussing how variability risk should be shared among participants in an electricity network while respecting security constraints.
Biography: Eilyan Bitar is a fifth-year doctoral student at U.C. Berkeley working towards the completion of a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and M.S. in Statistics. He received his B.S. from U.C. Berkeley in 2006, where his research focused primarily on the control of reacting flow fields. Currently, his research interests include complex networks, stochastic optimal control and optimization, sequential Monte-Carlo methods, and game theory with applications in renewable energy systems, the electric power grid, electricity markets, energy storage, and wind power forecasting.
Host: Dr. Roger Ghanem
Location: Kaprielian Hall (KAP) - 209
Audiences: Everyone Is Invited
Contact: Evangeline Reyes