Events Calendar

Epstein ISE Department Seminar

Speaker: Dr. Vicki Bier, Professor & Chair, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering and Director, Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Talk Title: "Methods Development for Optimal Defenses Against Adaptive Adversaries"

Abstract: This talk discusses extensions to game-theoretic models for homeland security, motivated by the desire to make game theory ready for use in real-world decisions. First, I discuss a simple elicitation process where subject-matter experts can provide only ordinal judgments of the attractiveness of potential targets, and the adversary preferences among targets are assumed to involve multiple attributes such as fatalities, property loss, and symbolic value. Probabilistic inversion and/or Bayesian density estimation can then be used to derive probability distributions representing both defender uncertainty about adversary weights on the various attributes, and also defender ignorance about unobserved attributes that may be important to the adversary, but have not yet been identified by the defender.

I also discuss an approach for extending game-theoretic models to consider adversary capabilities in addition to just intent, since intelligence experts generally believe that adversary capabilities are at least as important as intent. The novel feature of this work is the use of contest-success functions from economics to capture the extent to which the success of an attack is attributable to adversary capabilities and/or defensive investment, rather than pure luck. The model allows the effectiveness of adversary capabilities to differ across targets (e.g., civilian versus military targets) and attack modes (e.g., attacks using improvised explosive devices versus nuclear weapons).

MONDAY, MARCH 31, 2014
RONALD TUTOR HALL (RTH) ROOM 526
1:00 - 2:00 PM

Biography: Dr. Bier is a Professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where she has directed the Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis (formerly the Center for Human Performance in Complex Systems) since 1995. She received a PhD in Operations Research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1983, and a B.S. in Mathematical Sciences from Stanford University in 1976. Dr. Bier's current research interests focus on problems of security and critical infrastructure protection. She has been a member of the Homeland Security Advisory Committee of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Science Advisory Board. Her areas of expertise are in risk analysis, decision analysis, and operations research (mathematical modeling).

Host: Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering

More Information: Seminar-Bier.doc

Location: Ronald Tutor Hall of Engineering (RTH) - 526

Audiences: Everyone Is Invited

Contact: Georgia Lum