Events Calendar

USC's Homeland Security Center (CREATE) Monthly Seminar Series

Speaker: Dr. Seth Guikema , Assistant Professor at Johns Hopkins University

Talk Title: “Terrorism risk - definitions, models, and prediction?”

Series: CREATE Monthly Seminar Series

Abstract: While terrorism risk analysis is an important topic within the risk analysis community with a considerable base of activity in both research and practice, a lack of agreement on the fundamental concepts and aims of the field continues to persist. How is terrorism risk defined? Is the concept of the probability of a terrorist attack well-defined? What are the goals and requirements of terrorism risk analysis models? In this talk I first discuss different conceptualizations of "risk" and how they apply specifically to terrorism risk. I then discuss conflicting goals in terrorism risk analysis models, understanding and explanation vs. prediction, showing examples of different types of models, concluding that many of the existing modeling framework are focused on explanation and understanding, not prediction. I next argue that an increased focus on prediction is needed, suggest a set of necessary conditions that terrorism risk models should meet, and discuss the challenges of verification and validation of predictive terrorism risk models.

Biography: Dr. Seth Guikema is an Assistant Professor at Johns Hopkins University in the Geography and Environmental Engineering department with joint appointments in Civil Engineering and Earth & Planetary Science. He is also an Adjunct Professor II at the University of Stavanger (Norway) in the Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management, and Planning and a Senior Decision Analyst with Innovative Decisions, Inc. He completed degrees in Civil & Environmental Engineering (BS, ME, MS) and Management Science and Engineering (PhD - Stanford), with a focus on engineering risk and decision analysis. The focus of his research is on risk analysis for natural hazards impacting infrastructure systems, climate adaptation for urban areas and infrastructure, and terrorism risk analysis. He is a Councilor for the Society for Analysis and the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society. He received the Chauncey Starr Distinguished Young Risk Analyst award from SRA in 2010 as well as two Best Publication on Awards from Risk Analysis in 2012 for two of his papers on terrorism risk analysis.

To ensure that I order your lunch, please RSVP to calicchi@usc.edu no later than Wednesday, March 20, 2013.
Please advise if you require a vegetarian option.

Hope to see you there!
Best Regards,


Erin Calicchio
Administrative Assistant
University of Southern California
U.S. Department of Homeland Security - National Center for
Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE)
3710 McClintock Ave, RTH 313
Los Angeles, CA 90089-2902
213-740-3863
calicchi@usc.edu
www.usc.edu/create


Host: Homeland Security Center @ USC (CREATE)

Location: Ralph And Goldy Lewis Hall (RGL) - 209

Audiences: Everyone Is Invited

Contact: Kelly Buccola