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Events for April 28, 2011
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Defense Dissertation: Prediction of Extreme Events in Southern California
Thu, Apr 28, 2011 @ 02:00 PM - 04:00 PM
Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Conferences, Lectures, & Seminars
Speaker: Bennington J. Willardson, Ph.D. Candidate, Civil and Environmental Engineering
Abstract: The prediction of extreme runoff events has significant risk and financial implications when dealing with hydraulic infrastructure. This is especially true in highly urbanized areas such as Southern California. Two methods for determining extreme runoff exist: extrapolation of existing runoff data using extreme event probability distributions, or hydrologic modeling using design rainfall events and watershed characteristics to generate an estimate of the extreme runoff event. This research investigates both methods to evaluate usefulness and limitations in providing guidance for risk and financial analysis.
Design of levees and flood protection channels often focuses on providing protection from events with a 50- to 100-year recurrence interval. In many areas of the country, stream gage record sets do not contain records of this length. The effects of record length, probability distribution selection, and the method of parameter estimation are evaluated to determine the impacts on prediction of the extreme runoff event used for levee and channel design.
Design storms are often used with hydrologic models to predict runoff for events larger than those measured through systematic stream gaging. The Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) - Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) methodology is widely used. This research evaluates the use of this standard on design for major hydraulic structures such as dam spillways within Southern California. Two standard PMP methodologies are evaluated based on rain gage frequency analysis within Los Angeles County. The effects of soils, watershed characteristics, and wild fire on extreme runoff events are also evaluated using Monte Carlo Simulation of 27 watersheds within the County.
The Monte Carlo Simulations evaluates two design storms, two soil loss methodologies, and the effects of fire within a watershed. The structure and development of the model will be discussed, as well as the results for the different cases in determining extreme runoff events. Conclusions will be drawn regarding prediction of extreme runoff events in Southern California.
Location: Kaprielian Hall (KAP) - 209
Audiences: Everyone Is Invited
Contact: Evangeline Reyes
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Distinguished Lecture
Thu, Apr 28, 2011 @ 03:30 PM - 05:00 PM
Thomas Lord Department of Computer Science
Conferences, Lectures, & Seminars
Speaker: Prof. Stuart Russell, University of California, Berkeley
Talk Title: Open universes and nuclear weapons
Abstract: I will discuss a formal unification of probability theory and full (open-universe) first-order logic that allows for uncertain reasoning about unknown objects and events within a general-purpose formal language. Applications range from citation information extraction to monitoring ompliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The second half of the talk will describe the latter application in detail.
Biography: Stuart Russell was born in Portsmouth, England in 1962. He received his B.A. with first-class honours in physics from Oxford University in 1982, and his Ph.D. in computer science from Stanford in 1986. He then joined the faculty of the University of California at Berkeley, where he is Professor (and formerly Chair) of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences and holder of the Smith-Zadeh Chair in Engineering. He is also an Adjunct Professor of Neurological Surgery at UC San Francisco. In 1990, he received the Presidential Young Investigator Award of the National Science Foundation, and in 1995 he was cowinner of the Computers and Thought Award. He was a 1996 Miller Professor of the University of California and was appointed to a Chancellor's Professorship in 2000. In 1998, he gave the Forsythe Memorial Lectures at Stanford University and in 2005 he received the ACM Karlstrom Outstanding Educator Award. He is a Fellow and former Executive Council member of the American Association for Artificial Intelligence and a Fellow of the Association for Computing Machinery.
He has published over 150 papers on a wide range of topics in artificial intelligence including machine learning, probabilistic reasoning, knowledge representation, planning, real-time decision making, multitarget tracking, computer vision, computational physiology, and global seismic monitoring. His books include "The Use of Knowledge in Analogy and Induction" (Pitman, 1989), "Do the Right Thing: Studies in Limited Rationality" (with Eric Wefald, MIT Press, 1991), and "Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach" (with Peter Norvig, Prentice Hall, 1995, 2003, 2010).
Host: Prof. Fei Sha, USC
Location: Seaver Science Library (SSL) - 150
Audiences: Everyone Is Invited
Contact: Kanak Agrawal
