Effect of Phase Spectrum Uncertainties of Earthquake Motion on Seismic Fragility Curve of Steel Brid

*BY
*Prof. Tadanobu Sato
*Faculty of Science and Engineering
Waseda University
satotdnb@aoni.waseda.jpAbstract:* The earthquake resistant capacity of a structure with uncertainties is evaluated by fragility curves based on the probabilistic concept. We estimate fragility curves by using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and limit seismic intensity. For the effective estimation of the tail part, namely low conditional failure probability, we use the Subset simulation method. Samples are generated to search the failure region in each subspace by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The effect of phase spectrum uncertainties on the fragility curve is also examined and a method to define a design earthquake motion eliminating phase uncertainties.

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