Simulation-Based Engineering and Science (SBES); Applications for Large Scale Systems

Speaker: Dr. Masanobu Shinozuka Professor & Chair, Civil & Environmental Engineering-UC IrvineThis presentation reviews the development of analytical models that evolved over the last decades for the prediction and evaluation of the performance of large-scale systems, including civil infrastructure systems, under probabilistic natural and manmade hazards. Key milestones in the evolution are highlighted in terms of notable analytical innovations, enhanced sophistication in modeling, quantum jumps in the spatial coverage, and broadening of the consequence domain into socio-economic dimensions from technical dimension only. The overall predictive model for the system is constructed by integrating a number of modular components each of which represents a subsystem model or a model of specific hazard impact. Such predictive models are used in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation techniques in the spirit of SBES. It is notable that in this process, the system can be improved (upgraded or retrofitted) virtually, and then subjected to various probabilistic hazard scenarios. This allows us to identify the most effective method of improvement under probabilistic hazard scenarios (e.g., a particular earthquake ground motion with an estimated probability of occurrence, or under a set of scenario earthquakes representing the regional probabilistic seismic hazard). However, the effectiveness can be measured in terms of the benefit-cost ratio derived for each of stakeholder groups. And hence, the optimal effective method chosen for implementation can be completely different depending on which stakeholder group prevails. Some examples of the use of such predictive models for seismic performance evaluation and for evaluation of cost-effectiveness of implementing a method of retrofit are presented for the utility networks of LADWP (Los Angeles Department of Water & Power), MLGW (Memphis Light, Gas and Water) and for the highway network of Caltrans (California Department of Transportation). In these examples, engineering-wise fundamentalistic definitions of robustness, resilience and sustainability of these systems are used.

Location: Kaprielian Hall (KAP) - 209

Audiences: Everyone Is Invited

Contact: Evangeline Reyes