Sensitivity, Uncertainty and Cost Assessments of Impacts of Climate Change on Air Quality

Speaker: K.J. Liao,
Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory,
Argonne, Illinois,
E-mail: kliao@anl.gov Abstract:
Climate change is forecast to affect ambient temperatures, precipitation frequency and stagnation conditions, all of which impact regional air quality. An issue of primary importance for policy-makers is how well currently planned control strategies for improving air quality that are based on the current climate will work under future global climate change scenarios. The US EPA's Regional Air Quality Modeling System, CMAQ, with decoupled direct method (DDM) are used to investigate sensitivities of ground-level ozone and PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 ìm) to emission controls for current and future scenarios. Sensitivities are predicted to change slightly in response to climate change, suggesting that currently planned emission control strategies will continue to be effective in decreasing ozone and PM2.5 levels in the future. Impacts of uncertainties in climate change forecast on regional air quality predictions are investigated using multiple climate futures in order to evaluate the robustness of currently planned emission controls under impacts of climate change. The results show that the impacts of climate uncertainties can be substantial and partially offset the effectiveness of future emission controls in some urban areas and should be included in assessing future air pollutant control requirements. Several mathematical programming models for developing optimal integrated air pollutant control strategies under impacts of climate change will also be discussed. Optimization of emission control strategies for offsetting climate effects on ozone and PM2.5 levels for five U.S. cities (Los Angeles, Houston, Chicago, Atlanta and New York) will be presented as an example of single-objective nonlinear programming models based on the least-cost approach.

Location: Kaprielian Hall (KAP) - 209

Audiences: Everyone Is Invited

Contact: Evangeline Reyes