A Systems Architecting Case Study: Technical and Operational Assessment of Molecular Nanotechnology

Daniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering SeminarA Systems Architecting Case Study: Technical and Operational Assessment of Molecular Nanotechnology for Space Operations Professor Tom McKendreeAdjunct Associate, University of Southern CaliforniaABSTRACT: I present a systems architecting a case study of technology impact assessment in which the technology is potentially powerful enough to significantly change the preferred system architectures. Molecular nanotechnology, the emerging ability to design and build systems to atomic precision, has been suggested to offer great benefits to space systems and space operations. The research problem is to assess that claim. More generally the problem is how to approach the generic problem of assessing the potential application of a promising new technology to a broad application area.In many areas, such as aerospace, system lifetimes are large relative to technology cycles, and system technologies must be analyzed for refreshment and insertion. Consequently, this sort of assessment is necessary to estimate the potential for major architecture changes resulting from potential major technical advances. The assessment is structured by defining four technology levels, a current technology baseline and three increasingly capable levels of molecular nanotechnology. Five different space system architectures are assessed against these four levels: solar electric ion engines, solar sails, chemical rockets, planetary skyhooks and towers, and tethers. The talk primarily addresses the first two. The assessments rely on system modeling, and often further development of preferred system concepts to effectively exploit the potential of a particular technology level. In addition, an operational assessment is made. First a multi-faceted scenario for space transportation is defined based on an extension of the classic facility location problem to address source, sink and facility locations in orbital space. The best system architecture for space transportation at each technology level is then assessed for performance on the scenario. The assessment for each technology level uses the best corresponding space transportation architecture, and also requires scenario-specific tuning of system designs to balance system cost and performance. The presentation includes a summary of the assessment results and lessons learned for conducting comparable assessments of technology across system architectures. FRIDAY, APRIL 11, 2008, ANDRUS GERONTOLOGY BLDG (GER) 309, 2:00-3:00 PM

Location: Ethel Percy Andrus Gerontology Center (GER) - 309

Audiences: Everyone Is Invited

Contact: Georgia Lum